Edge Check

Most beginners test a strategy on a dozen trades, get a positive number, and conclude they have an edge. A dozen trades cannot tell you that. Drawn from a genuinely losing system, twelve trades come out looking profitable about 38% of the time. This runs your rules over every daily candle we can get — more than twenty years on some pairs — and reports what your sample can and cannot support. You get a strike rate, average win and average loss, expectancy on the standard formula, and the thing that is almost always missing: a confidence interval around it, plus your worst drawdown and your longest losing streak. You also get the trade log as a CSV, in the column order used by the backtesting spreadsheet templates that circulate with the popular beginner courses, so it pastes straight in. Seven columns are deliberately left blank — support and resistance touches, the pullback phase, the Fibonacci level, price deceleration, the candlestick. Those are judgement calls. A machine guessing at them would be inventing data, and filling them in yourself is the part of backtesting that actually teaches you to read a chart. **What this is not.** It is not advice, not a signal service, and not connected to any broker. It tests history, and history is not a promise. Spread, commission and swap are not modelled. Prices come from Yahoo Finance, whose daily FX candles do not start and end at the same moment as your broker's, so figures will be close to but not identical to your platform.